Apple Inc. has delivered a wonderful quarter report on July 21 but forecasted fourth-quarter earnings of only $1.00 per share and revenue of $7.8 billion, compared with average Wall Street targets of $1.25 per share which is out of a range of $1.13 to $1.41 on $8.3 billion in revenue.
While Apple has a reputation for giving conservative financial forecasts, its view for the fiscal fourth quarter undercut analyst expectations to a deeper degree than in past quarters, prompting investors to a selling spree.
Apple shares tumbled by $16.59 or 9.98% after issuing guidance for the fourth quarter after closed on that Monday but gaining back most of the losses by the end of the day.
Apple has been strong fundamentally and as the chart shows a strong positive divergence between the price and the MACD histogram recently indicating a strong possible bullish reversal.
I guess that patience is all you need to wait for the window of opportunity to get in at the right timing and not to jump the gun as I always did as a novice back then.
The moment Apple broke out of the fractal and the MACD histogram had just turn positive, I long 3 contracts of Sept 170 Call @ $6.45 and was bullish since. By yesterday 2 hours after the open, the options have increase to $ 11.20 and I immediately adjust the stop to $10.00 protecting most of my profit.
This morning (market already closed in US), my position was stopped out @ $9.95 as the market lost back some of it’s gain giving me a profit of $1050.00 or 54% in just 3 trading days.
Change it to a weekly chart, the bullish reversal has just started and I can foresee that there are more profits to be made but it is always wiser to take some first. I will wait for pullback before going long again. This time I can be greedy as I have $1050.00 market’s money with me. As the Implied Volatility of Apple is increasing due to the bullishness of the stock, Bull Call Spread is likely to be a better strategy for this play.
“It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is true we ought to follow what is most probable” - Rene Descartes
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We will see AAPL reverse and head back down to the $150s. I’d consider buying puts if we get to the $180-185 range.